I recently had the urge to research how much oil is left in the earth, based on what the experts think. I just wanted to read varied opinions before forming any of my own. I then began to think that it may be wise to do more research and check these numbers against figures such as the total volume of the earth, and several of its constituents, to make sure that everyone (or almost everyone) is on the same page as far as the size of the earth and the theoretically possible amounts of various resources therein.
Though I have not nearly finished this work, I have made a strikingly important observation about what may happen (or be happening now) when the oil companies realize they have nearly squeezed the last drop of oil from the earth. They might try to hide the facts regarding how much is left. I sometimes tell people that we will be out of oil in 5-10 years to see how they react. Some people think that oil prices will go up to $10 or more a gallon. This is not the case. The market will not bear such high prices and people will seek alternatives, just as they have in response to each rise in gas prices.
There are alternatives, which will be exploited based on necessity. The truth is that corporations tell major lies to protect profits. The goal of oil and other companies is to get the highest return on their investments. In thinking of all the money tied up in oil extraction and transportation, it's easy to see that the best return on investment would come from steadily removing all recoverable oil from the earth until whatever is left is too expensive to chase down (at which point they would already have peaked at the price they can sell, based on what the markets will bear). Meanwhile, oil companies would be padding their own product transition by readying themselves to supply the next major source(s) of energy.
Another likely goal of those in the oil business is to get people used to paying the highest amount possible for oil, so when the time comes for a different energy source, they can still make large profits. It also makes sense to keep consumers in the dark so that they have little time to plan on what type of energy they feel comfortable with as an alternative; if we don't think we're running out of oil, we won't be pressed to find alternatives. Educated consumers give rise to a harder sale. I, for example, don't like what corporations are supplying, so I make my own vehicles (ok, I do own a Ford , but I bought it used so pitooy). BP estimates known reserves to amount about 40 years worth of oil at current consumption rates. It is very important to consider the words used by the BP, "at current consumption rates". Consider the impact on consumption rates from emerging markets; consumption will increase greatly as countries like India, China , Brazil and others grow their emerging middle classes. If the world were to see just 2-3 more countries comparable in size and oil consumption to the USA, the estimated reserves would be depleted much sooner than 2040. How about 2025?. The current consumption rates also ignore anticipated population growth, which are expected to go from about 6.9 billion to over 8 billion by 2040. With this much discrepancy (and maybe more that I did not mention), it is my rough estimation that there are only 7-12 years of oil that can be recovered and sold at a bearable market value. If this is true, then who else might want to help keep the cat in the bag? Everyone invested in big oil has reason to ride this greasy wave until it is exhausted.
There may be more to what is going on than meets the eye when gas prices change. The only way for oil companies to know how much you'll pay for fuel is to increase its cost until you (the consumer) buy less. The rising and falling of the prices also get you to accept higher and higher prices, by giving you temporary high prices to compare to the relatively low prices that emerge (and people are thankful {but it's relative thankfullness} when prices fall just a few percent). I have tracked a direct relationship in the rise of gas prices to the sales of electric vehicles (EV) and EV parts, which proves that when gas prices rise, people look for alternatives, until prices fall.
There is also a possible element of control within the fluctuating prices of oil. If reserves are exhausted in an area (like Japan), it may be beneficial to force people to use alternatives at a significantly increased cost. This shows where people will naturally go after oil, and helps create a target energy to profit from. We already see oil companies invest in alternative energy such as wind and solar, which is a sign of the depletion of oil reserves. A major concern of mine is Chevron's "We Agree" campaign, which is a persuasion technique involving the use of Neuro Linguistic Programming (NLP) techniques. People are more likely to accept what you say if you begin with the statement "I agree". I would add to their campaign a gas pump shaped like an Aunt Jemima syrup bottle. I agree, and so does Auntie Jemima.
I would much rather ride a cow to work than finance (or even outright buy) an oil eating, inefficient, wear prone, loud, service engine soon blinking, biannual smog technician visiting, tax serving, replacement part needing, carbon dioxide belching, carbon monoxide leaking, oxides of nitrogen spewing, damn internal combustion engine vehicle.
For some specific numbers relating to oil reserves and projections, visit http://makewealthhistory.org/2010/06/11/how-much-oil-is-there-left-really/
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